The usual suspects would be Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts. Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is up there and is returning on a mission. But, the time has come for Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons to make a big jump, not only in terms of big numbers, but in terms of big results. Look for the Falcons to go 12-4 this year with Matt Ryan being elevated into the Brady/Manning dynasty.
In terms of other QB's, Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers will put up enormous numbers, and Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams will avoid a sophomore jinks. Colt McCoy of the Cleveland Browns will surprise everyone with his passing rating and effectiveness, but the team would have to go 12-4 for him to get any attention. So, don't look for these QB's to be competing for NFL Player of the Year this year.
A running back like Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings has a chance, but only if his QB and WR's are good enough to let defenses do something other than focus on him. Don't look for Donavan McNabb to be scaring any defenses in the NFC North this year, so while Peterson will get lots of numbers because he will be the only offensive weapon, he won't get enough to separate him as an offensive giant in 2011. Of course, put Adrian Peterson behind Tom Brady, and Peterson would be a cinch to win it all.
Also, it's tough for running backs to win the awards because of the running back by committee philosophy now prevalent in the league. One running back rarely handles most of the efforts, and as a result, none put dominating numbers. They are critical to team success - they're just not out there the way Walter Peyton was out there in the past.
How about wide receivers? Like the flowers in the folk song of the 1960's, we wonder where they all have gone. Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans is about the only one who you could say is better than everyone else in the league, but by how much? There is no longer a Chad Johnson Ochocinco 85 who was clearly superior, or a Terrell Owens. Remember T.O.? He was once famous for being famous. How short our memories....
Today, we love receivers like Wes Welker of the New England Patriots. Not the 50 yards down the sidelines guys, but the 7 yards on 3rd and 6. But while these guys have lots of catches and some decent yards, they don't separate themselves sufficiently from the pack to justify winning the Offensive Player of the year award.
