Those that read my previous article on NFL coaching changes for 2011 also got to bone up on my thoughts on two teams to watch out for that might very well surprise during the upcoming season when it comes to projected regular season wins, the Cleveland Browns and the Denver Broncos. Below you will find my overall final list of teams that I expect to either surpass or fall short of the posted Vegas regular season win totals.
CLEVELAND: I won't get too detailed with the Brownies in this article as I have already wrote an in-depth piece on them in my previous article, however, with that being said I will indeed lay out a few reasons WHY I fully expect the Brownies to surpass 6.5 wins. First of all, a glance at the final SOS (strength of schedule) from last season reveals that Cleveland actually faced the NFLs third toughest slate of games as evidenced by the fact that the Browns sixteen opponents from last year combined to finish with a winning percentage of .564.
Against last years opponents Cleveland managed to post a record of 5-11 straight up and 5-10-1 ATS, a closer look-see reveals that five of the Brownies eleven straight up losses were by six or less points and lets not forget that Cleveland went into New Orleans and whipped the Saints 30-17, defeated the Patriots 34-14, and gave the Jets all they wanted before losing 20-26.
This year the Brownies are tied with three other teams (Oakland, Giants, Atlanta) for the 19th toughest schedule, in other words, Cleveland is going from playing the 3rd toughest schedule last year to having the 19th toughest schedule this year, is asking Cleveland to win two additional games this year versus last year all that much? I don't think so and especially when considering that Cleveland will get to face the weak NFC West this season in road games at San Francisco and Arizona and will also have fairly easy home dates against the likes of Tenny, Miami, Seattle, St Louis, and Jacksonville.....OVER 6.5 regular season wins.
DENVER: The Broncos are the other team that I have already profiled in my previous article, like Cleveland, I fully expect Denver to surpass the projected regular season win total of 6 that Vegas has set for them. However, unlike the Brownies who have an easier schedule this year versus last year, these Broncos actually have a tougher slate of games this year versus last year.
Denver finished last year with an overall mark of 4-12 straight up and were 5-10-1 ATS, the Broncos faced the NFLs 23rd toughest schedule last year (.488) as computed by league final win/loss results. This year the Broncos are tied with five other teams (Indy, Jags, KC, SD, and Det) for the right to have the leagues 3rd toughest slate of games. So if the Broncos only won four games last year with the 23rd rated schedule, what is it that makes me think they will equal or surpass 6 wins this year with a tougher schedule?
Without getting too in-depth here (read my other article) with regard to the changes that have taken place in Denver, let it suffice to say that having a new sheriff in town (John Fox) will make all the difference as Denver lost four games last year by seven or less points due to fielding a defense that gave up a monster 471 points on the season, which needless to say was the most points allowed by any team. Look for defensive-minded skipper John Fox to have the cure for what ailed last seasons 32nd ranked defense.
In the big picture Vegas isn't stupid, the odds maker knows Denver faces a tougher slate of games this year versus last year, he knows that Denver only won four games last year but yet he sets Denvers regular season win total this year at 5.5 only to have the sharps almost immediately take the number up to 6. New Skipper John Fox likes to play a more conservative game by running the ball more and playing strong defense, this approach by itself will surely help the Broncos turnover margin from last season (- 9) and could mean the difference in a couple of close games.....OVER 6 regular season wins.
MINNESOTA: The Vikings are one of eight teams this season to have a new skipper directing traffic, however, new HC Leslie Frazier with Minny, along with new HC Jason Garrett for Dallas, are the only two new guys that were actually interim HC hold-overs from last season when Minnesota and Dallas both fired their headmen prior to the conclusion of the regular season. This means that both Frazier and Garrett will have a leg up on the other new skippers and especially when it comes to player relations and scheme implementation.
What I pointed out above really doesn't have diddly to do with how each team will actually perform within their own division because no other team within the Vikings or Cowboys division had a head coaching change. The time and place to take advantage of head coaching changes should be based on what spread Vegas places on events that involve teams with new skippers. Never lose sight of the fact that its all about public PERCEPTION.
Joe Public sees a Viking team that finished last year with an overall mark of 6-10 straight up and 5-10-1 ATS, ole Joe views the Vikings as a team influx with regard to last years very distracting Favre saga and the eventual goodbye to HC Brad Childress prior to the seasons end. Ole Joe sees this year the Vikings will have no Favre, no QB Tarvaris Jackson, no WR Sidney Rice, and no DT Pat Williams. Ole Joe is drinking the media koolaid and hearing all the hoopla of how the Vikings divisional rivals will be sooooooo good this year with regard to Green Bay probably going to win back to back Super Bowls, of how both the Bears and Lions are teams to look out for.
Yada yada yada...I also see a Viking team that was in turmoil last year, however, I also see a Viking team that won 13 games the season prior and was a Favre interception away in OT from going to the Super Bowl. I see a pretty good veteran QB in Donovan McNabb donning purple who has something in Minny that he did not have in either Philly or Washington and that is a bonafide upper tier running back to hand the ball off to which will make the opposing team respect the play action passing game even more.
Last season the Vikings faced the leagues eighth toughest schedule and this year are tied with Miami and Houston for having the NFLs tenth toughest schedule based on opponents wins/losses from last year. With all the turmoil going on last year Minny still managed to post a record of 6-10 with three of their losses by five or less points and what I like most is the fact that Minny managed to overcome everything, with regard to the Favre issue and the ouster of HC Childress, to go 3-3 straight up coming down the stretch which is something to build on.
The Vikings three seasonal win tallies prior to last season were 13, 10, and 8 games which is an average of 10.3 wins per year, if we include last years result in a four year average we see that Minny still averaged over 9 wins a year in a four year span and was a playoff team in 2008 and 2009. There is way too much talent and pride on this Viking team to not want to rebound from last year, look for new QB McNabb to protect the ball better and improve on Minnys -11 turnover ratio from last year.....OVER 7 regular season wins.
NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots had a darn good season last year in finishing with an overall mark of 14-3 straight up and 10-6-1 ATS, however, if the truth be told a lot of New Englands success last season was built on simply having the right bounces at the right time going their way with regard to finishing the season with an almost unheard of mega +28 turnover margin.
I wanted to see how teams historically have performed the next season following a season like New England had with regard to finishing with +18 or more in turnover margin and found some startling results. For example, since 1990 there have been a total of 19 NFL teams to finish with a turnover margin of +18 or more, 14 of those 19 teams went on to win less games the following season, meanwhile, three teams had a better record and two teams had the same record as the previous year.
Wanting to refine the results a little further I went back and checked on how teams fared the following season after finishing with +20 or more turnovers in a season, I found that over the same span since 1990 there have only been 8 NFL teams to finish with a +20 or more turnover ratio. All eight teams that finished with a +20 ratio lost more games the next season and 4 of the 8 teams finished with a record of 8-8 the next season and here's the kicker...no team since 1990 that had a +20 turnover ratio or more has gone on to win more than 10 games the next season.
New England won a total of 14 games last season, however, four of their fourteen wins were by four or less points. The Patriots will find the going a little tougher this season with out of division road games at improved Oakland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Denver as well as home dates against San Diego, Dallas, Giants, and Colts. New England usually fields one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and this year will be no different, however, that doesn't change the fact that this is a unit that is getting a little long in the tooth.
To add some depth along the offensive line as well as to start transitioning to new members, the Patriots drafted OT Nate Solder out of Colorado in the first round with the 17th overall pick and then snagged former TCU Horned Frog OG Marcus Cannon with the 138th overall pick. If for some reason Patriot QB Tom Brady goes down and misses any game time the Patriots will be forced to go with third year undrafted free agent back up Brian Hoyer which would not be a good combination with a New England defense that finished last season ranked a shoddy 25th overall and 30th against the pass..translation is that New England needs to score to protect their defense and if Brady goes down I don't think Hoyer has Tom Bradys skill set.....UNDER 11.5 regular season wins.
ATLANTA: The Falcons won the NFC South last season after finishing 13-3 during the regular season, Atlanta also earned a first round bye and homefield advantage for last years playoff round, however, that didn't help them one iota as Green Bay came to Atlanta and exposed the Falcons in a 48-21 drubbing that wasn't even as close as the score might indicate as Green Bay had more first downs 28 to 15, more total yards 442 to 194, and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a whopping 38:19 to 21:41 difference.
Atlanta was an enigma last year as they somehow managed to finish 13-3 with the NFLs 14th ranked toughest slate of games, however, a closer look-see reveals that these Falcons must have had lady luck shining on them all season long with regard to winning six games by 6 or less points and doing so with a middle of the pack offense and a middle of the pack defense that both finished with a middle of the pack 16th overall ranking. Final regular season statistics show that the Falcon offense averaged 341.19 total yards per game while the Falcon defense allowed on average 332.44 total yards per outing.
How does a team win 13 games during the regular season when their offense only gains 8.75 more yards per game on average than their defense allows? By getting the bounces, thats how. Atlanta finished the regular season with a +14 turnover ratio which allowed them to win games they probably should have lost. During their opening playoff game last year against Green Bay these Falcons didn't get the bounces as they lost the T/O battle 4 to 1 and got smoked 48-21.
Divisional rival New Orleans should re-take this division this season, the Tampa Bay Bucs are on the rise after posting a 10-6 record last year, however, Tampa Bay was another team that had lady luck shining on them with regard to having exactly half their wins (five wins) coming by 3 or less points and finishing with a +9 in T/O ratio. Carolina has to improve on a 2-14 season as they have nowhere to go but up. The Falcons have tough out of division road games at Chicago, at Detroit, at Indy, and at Houston along with tough out of division games when they host Philly, Green Bay, and Minnesota. I really can't see these Falcons winning any more than nine games this season.....UNDER 10.5 regular season wins.
